India Target In Paris Agreement
In its NDC, India has committed to achieving a cumulative installed electricity capacity of about 40 percent from non-fossil energy resources by 2030. As of September 2019, India`s electricity capacity for non-fossil fuels, which includes renewables, hydropower and nuclear power, accounted for 38% of the total electricity mix installed in September 2019, just 2% of its 2030 target. The share of installed renewable energies (solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass and water-to-energy) alone is 23%. According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), non-fossil sources accounted for about 37% of India`s electricity capacity as of September 2019. So it seems that the biggest goal for 2030 is easily achieved. The UNEP report stresses that there is an even greater urgency to take action to improve the fight against climate change. If global greenhouse gas emissions do not decline by 7.6% per year between 2020 and 2030, the world will not be on track to meet the 1.50°C temperature target of the Paris Agreement. To avoid a disastrous future, countries must act now. G20 countries account for more than 78% of all emissions. Some countries – China, the EU28, India, Mexico, Russia and Turkey – are expected to meet their unconditional National Commitment Emissions (NDCs) targets.
India is one of three countries estimated to meet or exceed its NDC emissions target. But the momentum of the 25th session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP25) is very slow and insufficient of what the world needs to fight the climate crisis. Since the non-fossil production target depends on the provision of resources, the TAC based its assessment on the intensity target. The non-fossil production target would result in absolute emissions below the intensity target alone, which would effectively result in a greater reduction in intensity than in the NDC target itself. We estimate that achieving the intensity target would lead to an emission level of 5.3 to 5.7 GtCO2e (excluding LULUCF). This is 146-161% above the 2010 level. This is 8-11% lower than the previous estimate before the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the expected decline in GDP. There is a lot of room for uncertainty given the uncertainty surrounding economic development and the effects of the pandemic, as well as the speed of the economic recovery. The continued expansion of coal is a key reserve in India`s outlook.
The 1.5 degree Celsius Paris Agreement means there must be an exit from coal in India`s electricity sector by 2040. The National Electricity Plan (NEP) in 2018 included more than 90 GW of planned coal capacity, which would unnecessarily increase emissions and risk becoming stranded assets. Abandoning these plans is more than feasible if we take into account recent developments such as a 50% reduction in solar energy costs in just two years and several plans to build coal-fired power plants by several distribution companies. According to a report published on 5th November India`s commitment in the 2015 Paris Agreement to contribute to the reduction of global climate change is “insufficient”. He added that to achieve the targeted carbon sink by 2030, India would have to “more than double its current rate of forest cover expansion.” In order to build a low-carbon future and reduce climate change, the Indian government is committed to providing expansionary capabilities in the field of solar and wind energy and taking a series of ambitious measures in the fight against climate change. . . .